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Publication Type
Conference Proceedings
UWI Author(s)
Author, Analytic
Watson, Rhodene A.; Taylor, Michael; Campbell, Jayaka D.; Stephenson, Tannecia S.
Author Role
n/a
Author Affiliation
Department of Physics
Paper/Section Title
What to expect? Jamaica's future climate deduced from climate models
Medium Designator
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Connective Phrase
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Editor/Compiler
Reeson, Peter; Rose, Don
Editor/Compiler Role
n/a
Proceedings Title
Jamaica Institute of Environmental Professionals - Third National Conference on the Environment
Date of Meeting
May 15-17, 2007
Place of Meeting
Kingston, Jamaica
Place of Publication
Kingston
Publisher Name
Jamaica Institute of Environmental Professionals
Date of Publication
2007
Date of Copyright
n/a
Volume ID
n/a
Location in Work
25-26
Extent of Work
28
Packaging Method
n/a
Series Editor
n/a
Series Editor Role
n/a
Series Title
n/a
Series Volume ID
n/a
Location/URL
n/a
ISBN
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Notes
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Abstract
Climate change is of great importance to small island states like the Caribbean islands. These states are especially vulnerable as their economies are heavily dependent on climatic factors. Not much has however been done to quantify the expected change for the region. In this study climate change scenarios from three global climate models (GCMs) are examined to determine future climatic change in the Caribbean and in particular the island of Jamaica. The A1B, A2 (high emissions) and B1 (low-medium emissions) SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios are used from the HadCM3 (from the Hadley UK Centre, HAD), Max-Planck Institute of Meteorology) GCMs. The observed climatology of the region is captured reasonably well by the models. All models show an increase in annual mean temperature for jamaica of approximately 1C for the 40 year period 2020-2059 and an increase of between 1.5C to 2.7C for 2060-2100. The HadCM3 and ECHAM models predict a drier Jamaica between 2020 and 2059 with the severity of dryness increasing through the end of the century. The MRI mdel however predicts that Jamaica will be wetter by up to 10% from the 2020's onwards.....
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