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Publication Type
Journal Article
UWI Author(s)
Author, Analytic
Alleyne, Dillon
Author Affiliation, Ana.
n/a
Article Title
Can seasonal unit root testing improve the forecasting accuracy of tourist arrivals?
Medium Designator
n/a
Connective Phrase
n/a
Journal Title
Tourism Economics
Translated Title
n/a
Reprint Status
Refereed
Date of Publication
2006
Volume ID
12
Issue ID
1
Page(s)
45-64
Language
n/a
Connective Phrase
n/a
Location/URL
n/a
ISSN
n/a
Notes
n/a
Abstract
Tourism has emerged as one of the main industries in many Caribbean countries. Jamaica is no exception: tourist receipts are its largest source of foreign exchange earnings. Because of the importance of the tourism sector to the Jamaican economy, accurate forecasts of tourist arrivals are critical. This paper argues that forecasting accuracy can be improved by the use of seasonal unit root testing. Using six tourist arrival series, from 1968:1 to 2001:3, it was found that unit root testing, applying the HEGY procedure, did help to improve the forecasts at all horizons. The exceptions were those series that exhibited considerable volatility; in these cases the seasonal unit root test did not prove superior at the short horizon. These results, however, may not be robust with respect to data at other frequencies.....
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